Global trade used to sound simple: countries made things, sold them abroad and bought what they needed from elsewhere.
That world is becoming harder to navigate.
In 2026, tariffs, geopolitical tensions, sanctions, supply-chain disruptions and new regulations are increasingly shaping where goods are produced and where they can be sold.
The result is a global trading system that is still growing but becoming much more complicated.
Trade is still growing, but the risks are rising
Global merchandise trade performed strongly in 2025, with the World Trade Organization reporting a 4.6% increase in the volume of world merchandise trade, helped in part by strong demand for artificial-intelligence-related goods.
But strong trade numbers do not necessarily mean the system is stable.
UN Trade and Development (UNCTAD) warned in April that global trade growth could slow later in 2026 because of persistent trade tensions and rising trade costs. It described the outlook as positive but increasingly fragile.
That fragility is becoming visible in several ways.
Tariffs are changing business decisions
The latest U.S.-Canada dispute is one example.
Canada began imposing retaliatory tariffs on about $20 billion worth of U.S. goods on September 8, after trade negotiations broke down. The measures affect products including steel, furniture, clothing and electronics.
The problem for businesses is not simply paying a higher tariff.
Companies may have to reconsider where they manufacture products, which suppliers they use and which markets they sell to.
That can make everyday trade more expensive and unpredictable.
Trade is no longer just about economics
Geopolitics is increasingly influencing commercial decisions.
The war in Ukraine, tensions between the United States and China, instability in the Middle East and disputes over critical minerals are all affecting supply chains and shipping routes.
UNCTAD identified geopolitical tensions, shifting supply chains, digital and green transitions, and tighter national regulations among the major forces reshaping global trade in 2026.
Even the oceans are becoming part of the problem.
More than 80% of global trade by volume is transported by sea, meaning disruptions to major shipping routes can quickly become an international economic problem. Recent warnings from maritime nations about attacks on commercial vessels and growing risks to freedom of navigation underline just how vulnerable the system can be.
And Africa is trying to build its own advantage
For African countries, the changing trade environment could create both risks and opportunities.
The African Continental Free Trade Area is designed to increase trade among African countries and create a larger continental market.
Trading under the AfCFTA began in January 2021, and implementation efforts are continuing as countries work on issues including investment, customs and regional value chains.
That matters because a more integrated African market could give businesses an alternative to relying heavily on distant markets and imported goods.
But infrastructure, financing, customs barriers and differences between national regulations remain challenges.
The new reality of global trade
The biggest change may be that businesses can no longer think only about price and demand.
They increasingly have to think about politics, shipping routes, tariffs, sanctions, technology and where their suppliers are located.
Globalisation is not disappearing.
It is changing.
And as countries become more concerned about economic security and strategic independence, international trade may become less about finding the cheapest place to buy something and more about finding a place that is reliable when the world becomes uncertain.
Sources: WTO, UNCTAD, Reuters, Financial Times and African Union.
